End of the line for combustion engines?

[tractioninc]

In recent years, car makers have invested countless millions in their engine programs due to the horsepower wars and ever-increasing emissions/efficiency targets. But now it looks like we may have reached the end of the line for combustion engines.

Autoline (an auto industry news source in the US) is reporting that in due to global trends in vehicle electrification, "After 2021, not a single automaker has plans to develop new piston engines. They will continue to develop the engines they have, but will not design all new ones."

https://youtu.be/_z5zVITcnwE?t=4m43s

As a race fan and performance car enthusiast, I find that news bittersweet. This truly is the end of an era.

 

[SoulEV2016]

Yep, in French, we have a subject for this : http://www.automobile-propre.com/forums/voiture-electrique-general/le-tout-petrole-condamne-en-2020-et-en-regression-en-2035-t6947.html

2020 for the end of development of Thermal Motors ... an 2035 for a rush in Electric Cars (inversion of the market sale).

It's quick.
But we NEED that for sure !

 

[greenteam84]

Excited for the changes that 2020 will bring to the auto industry especially the end of production to thermal motors.

 

[MassDeduction]

In recent years, car makers have invested countless millions in their engine programs due to the horsepower wars and ever-increasing emissions/efficiency targets. But now it looks like we may have reached the end of the line for combustion engines.

Autoline (an auto industry news source in the US) is reporting that in due to global trends in vehicle electrification, "After 2021, not a single automaker has plans to develop new piston engines. They will continue to develop the engines they have, but will not design all new ones."

https://youtu.be/_z5zVITcnwE?t=4m43s

As a race fan and performance car enthusiast, I find that news bittersweet. This truly is the end of an era.

Here we are 5.5 years since this post. I wonder, are we still on track for this coming true by the end of next year?

 

[ksoul2084]

Certainly well on its way I think...

https://news.yahoo.com/honda-withdraw-formula-one-end-083354945.html

https://www.drive.com.au/motor-news/vw-to-stop-development-of-petrol-engines-in-2026-120283

https://electrek.co/2019/09/19/daimler-stops-developing-internal-combustion-engines-to-focus-on-electric-cars/

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/gm-going-all-electric-will-ditch-gas-diesel-powered-cars-n806806

https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1111981_new-engine-development-at-german-makers-to-end-by-2025-says-supplier

 

[invader166]

I think it's important to remember that internal combustion engines will still be produced and sold even after 2035.
They will simply not be used in any light-duty personal vehicles or medium duty commercial fleet transport.
Heavy-duty, industrial and probably military equipment will still be exempt and probably continue as they have for decades.
Ships and planes may turn into plug-in hybrids, in order to maximize their range. But emergency equipment like generators will still be powered by fossil fuels.
This is all a step in the right direction, and I'm sure we'll eventually be hearing news about the last fossil fuel engine ever produced, but the world will need more than 15 years to make this happen.

 

[IanL]

....But emergency equipment like generators will still be powered by fossil fuels.

They could be replaced by hydrogen/oxygen fuel cells and inverters. With wind, hydro, solar and nuclear, fossil fuels could be displaced as a source of energy to produce the hydrogen.

Heavy vehicles could be propelled by fuel cell/battery hybrids for increased efficiency.

 

[IanL]

Just to add - the US Army has experimented with safe compact hydrogen storage. The hydrogen is adsorbed into a sponge-like insert in the pressure vessel, allowing vastly increased storage for little extra weight, and, even if punctured by gunfire, the vessels did not explode, just slowly released the hydrogen as a gas. I think Big Oil probably got the development suppressed.

 

[MassDeduction]

Just to add - the US Army has experimented with safe compact hydrogen storage. The hydrogen is adsorbed into a sponge-like insert in the pressure vessel, allowing vastly increased storage for little extra weight, and, even if punctured by gunfire, the vessels did not explode, just slowly released the hydrogen as a gas. I think Big Oil probably got the development suppressed.

Possibly, or maybe there was no path to getting the price down to something a consumer might be willing to pay?

 

[IanL]

Well, that prompted me to look deeper into the issue, and I am encouraged by what I found:

https://hydrogeneurope.eu/hydrogen-...s) or microscopically small carbon nanotubes.

And when I suggested fuel cell/battery hybrid for heavy vehicles, I didn't realise this is already available in the Honda Clarity FCV.

 

[invader166]

And when I suggested fuel cell/battery hybrid for heavy vehicles, I didn't realise this is already available in the Honda Clarity FCV.

Not just Honda, Toyota and Hyundai are following along, and have hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in production as well.

For heavy commercial vehicles, hydrogen is definitely a plausible replacement fuel for diesel. This brings along a host of other problems like infrastructure, service/repairs, etc. but nothing that can't be solved over time.

Having driven both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, I personally would lean towards using battery electric for passenger vehicles, rather than fuel cell. Mainly because of the regenerative breaking. Not only do they save your disk breaks, but they also increase your range. This is sadly not the case with hydrogen fuel cells.

 

[IanL]

Having driven both battery electric and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, I personally would lean towards using battery electric for passenger vehicles, rather than fuel cell. Mainly because of the regenerative breaking. Not only do they save your disk breaks, but they also increase your range. This is sadly not the case with hydrogen fuel cells.

The article points out that HFC vehicles can be FC/hybrids (like the Clarity) , i.e. they have motive-power batteries and provide regenerative braking and instantaneous power increase, with which a pure FC vehicle has difficulty. It doesn't say this, but I imagine, when the vehicle slows or stops, and the FC power has to ramp down, the battery can also act as a sink. Some clever software needed to manage the process, but it sounds like they have achieved that.

I think battery electric alone is fine for "town cars", where the owners do mostly short-range trips, but for markets where people expect to cover long distances (e.g. America), the HFC hybrid is ideal for replacing the ICE hybrid, and will suit owners who may suffer from range anxiety and/or reluctance to wait for the battery to recharge. It also addresses those whose homes are unsuited to home charging. I live on an island 9x5 miles, and have fitted a 30A charger in the garage, so I have no problem with pure battery, but the folks who live in flats in town understandably don't feel the same way, and "green" cars are even more important in towns.

 

[MassDeduction]

The article points out that HFC vehicles can be FC/hybrids (like the Clarity) , i.e. they have motive-power batteries and provide regenerative braking and instantaneous power increase, with which a pure FC vehicle has difficulty. It doesn't say this, but I imagine, when the vehicle slows or stops, and the FC power has to ramp down, the battery can also act as a sink. Some clever software needed to manage the process, but it sounds like they have achieved that.

It sounds like a lot of cost and complexity, though. Given hydrogen is a more expensive fuel source as well, that seems like a difficult prospect to sell to consumers.

I think battery electric alone is fine for "town cars", where the owners do mostly short-range trips, but for markets where people expect to cover long distances (e.g. America), the HFC hybrid is ideal for replacing the ICE hybrid, and will suit owners who may suffer from range anxiety and/or reluctance to wait for the battery to recharge. It also addresses those whose homes are unsuited to home charging. I live on an island 9x5 miles, and have fitted a 30A charger in the garage, so I have no problem with pure battery, but the folks who live in flats in town understandably don't feel the same way, and "green" cars are even more important in towns.

Obviously I would prefer HFC hybrids over ICE hybrids. However, given how small the hydrogen infrastructure is, how expensive it would be to change that, how expensive the cars are... I don't see HFC hybrids ever super-ceding ICE hybrids. By the time hydrogen tech and infrastructure finally gets to the point that it might make sense, full battery electric (or perhaps by then, battery/capacitor electric) may have matured and improved to such an extent that it's no longer relevant to consumers. That's my guess, at any rate.

And I think the industry is guessing the same. There are many more gas stations putting in battery charging stations than those putting in hydrogen fuelling stations. So the gasoline industry appears to be making the same bet I am. Yes, it's much cheaper to put in a charging station than a hydrogen refuelling station. But that's kind of the point, isn't it? Hydrogen is capital intensive for the fuelling station, and the end product is expensive for the customer. Whereas battery electric is vastly cheaper for both the station and the consumer, and likely to stay that way. ICE is cheapest for buying the car. BEV is cheapest for fuelling and maintaining the car. Hydrogen is best for....? Nothing comes to mind.

With reasonably inexpensive cars hitting 380+ km (235+ miles), the main impediment to people getting over range anxiety is coming to terms with the fact that they rarely drive as far as they think they do.

Your points about long-haul trucking are valid, though. To do BEV long-haul trucking, you'd need to put the infrastructure in place to charge every time to truck stops for any reason. Wal-Mart Canada is buying hundreds of fully-electric delivery vehicles, so we'll see how they manage. Rapid chargers in every loading dock, I guess?

 

[MassDeduction]

Not just Honda, Toyota and Hyundai are following along, and have hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in production as well.

For heavy commercial vehicles, hydrogen is definitely a plausible replacement fuel for diesel. This brings along a host of other problems like infrastructure, service/repairs, etc. but nothing that can't be solved over time.[...]

There are many challenges standing in the way of adoption of hydrogen. It's energy intensive (so it's less green than battery electric). The infrastructure is limited, and it would be incredibly expensive to change that (so it's less convenient than ICE, and less convenient than BEV for those who mostly/exclusively charge at home). The cars are expensive compared to ICE, and offer less variety than BEV.

So if hydrogen isn't the greenest option, it's not the most convenient option, and it's not the cheapest option... which consumer is it for? Car consumers are mostly motivated by cost, convenient, and the environment, and it would have to become the best in one of those categories to be able to compete. The hydrogen proposition relies on something changing, but I don't see any of the above changing fast enough (because ICE and BEV are also improving every year, so it's a moving target for hydrogen).

As someone who does 100% of my charging from a level-1 wall outlet, I have an infrastructure of billions of charging outlets to choose from. I have a less energy intensive/greener option than hydrogen will probably ever be. I have a cheaper refuelling option than hydrogen will ever be.

Honda, Toyota, and Hyundai/Kai are nothing to sneeze at, but those companies collectively sell more EVs than they do HFC vehicles. When you add in the companies that are focused on battery electric as their future (Tesla, Volkswagen group, etc.), then the R&D going into battery electric is higher and predictably is paying far greater dividends. Very few car companies outside of Japan and South Korea even frequently talk about hydrogen anymore, it seems to me. I don't see hydrogen ever catching up.

Yes it's different when talking a sedan or a crossover than talking about a bus or a transport truck. But hydrogen isn't affordable in any context yet, which will stand in the way of public transit or business adopting it in large numbers.

 

[invader166]

The article points out that HFC vehicles can be FC/hybrids (like the Clarity) , i.e. they have motive-power batteries and provide regenerative braking and instantaneous power increase, with which a pure FC vehicle has difficulty. It doesn't say this, but I imagine, when the vehicle slows or stops, and the FC power has to ramp down, the battery can also act as a sink. Some clever software needed to manage the process, but it sounds like they have achieved that.

I can't speak for the Honda Clarity, but the Toyota Mirai I drove did not have any regen breaking at all. It behaved exactly as a gas powered car. It would roll and gain speed when going downhill, like a normal ICE vehicle.