My range has been shifting all over the map ... from as low as 120k at 100% to as much as 160km, over the past month or so. Temperature does seem to have an effect, and most definitely driving habits / behaviour.
The best advice I have read, is to pick a benchmark, and measure to that mark. As suggested elsewhere, the first range bar tends to be a good benchmark - it seems to drop at 87% charge. That drop also happens to coincide with one of the few lights I have in the first 3/4 of my drive to work. I have been regularly observing that that drop occurs within +/- a few hundred meters of that intersection, and it has not been decreasing in the 8 months / 25,000km, since I got the car. The conditions have to be reasonably consistent - extreme wind, rain, and using the heating/cooling system can affect it. But other than those observable aspects, that point does not vary, even though the guess-o-meter range has been varying ~25%.
The other approach I have taken on some of the low range estimate days, is to reset the trip meter, take note of the stated range, and track it ... I've seen a difference of as much as 50% ... I travel 30km, but only "consume" 20km of the stated range - I've had 2 occasions of leaving home where I had 50% of the battery, and a range less than I need for the round trip ... but it is a run I make twice per week for kids' sports ... I know it takes 40% battery for the round trip, so I don't care what the range states, I know I have a 10% buffer.
So, pick a reference point (or two or three) and monitor to that/those points ... don't get too hung up on the indicated range. Also know the battery need for your most common trips.